Across the globe, humanity is now confronting twin planetary crises: COVID-19 and climate change. The first was sudden – but not unexpected; the second has been in the making for generations. As a two-front war, they are both scientific realities and threaten human existence. Together, they require global response. No country can deal with these two crises on its own.
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There is nothing new about pandemics or, in many cases, epidemics. (See William Dowell’s article on the possible origin of COVID-19) They have occurred many times in the past ranging from the Plague of Athens in 430 BC, which killed an estimated 100,000 people, and the Black Death in the 14th century which travelled from Asia to wipe out close to half the population in Eurasia and North Africa, or the ‘Spanish Flu’ which erupted toward the end of World War I causing up to 500 million people to be infected in Europe, Asia and North America. The Spanish Flu caused, overall, at least 50 million deaths, including a disastrous second wave of infections. But all this is little consolation today to the millions suffering the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19.
What do pandemics and climate change have in common?
Climate, on the other hand, has changed significantly in recent decades. Though it has impacted ecosystems and civilization throughout history, over the past 50 years we have been experiencing a dramatic human-induced acceleration of global warming and other climatic impacts on our lives and planet.
While many may not think climate change and disease are similar or even associated, both can evolve rapidly. Fast changes in climate, operating over one to five-year periods and referred to as “abrupt climate change”, have taken their toll on previously flourishing civilizations. The abrupt onset of drought, for example, contributed to the collapse of the Mesopotamian Empire (modern day Syria and Iraq) 4200 years ago. And in the 800s AD, it resulted in the demise of the Mayan Empire in Mesoamerica.
Recent warming of the Arctic is the first abrupt climate change event of the modern era. It has already had severe consequences for people and ecosystems across the polar regions. It has also altered the thermal balance from the North Pole to mid-latitudes triggering changes in atmospheric circulation that are manifested as the intensification of droughts, floods and storms impacting much of the Northern Hemisphere.
The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 7-8 million people die prematurely every year as a consequence of poor air quality. Pollutants such as lead, cadmium and small particulates (PM2.5), are all directly associated with greenhouse gas emissions. They degrade human and ecosystem health making us more susceptible to pandemics, such as COVID-19, because poor air quality, which increasingly affects megacities from Delhi to Beijing, leads to rising respiratory and cardiac distress as well as cancer.
Climate change is also affecting vector-borne diseases, which are on the rise. Accounting for more than 17 per cent of all infectious illnesses, these are caused by parasites, bacteria or viruses and include Lyme, Triple E, Malaria and Dengue Fever. In addition, heat, drought, storms and general climate instability lead to more acute stress and displace communities further weakening humans and ecosystems.
WHO has concluded that changes in climate are likely to lengthen the transmission seasons of such diseases. Climate changes can also alter their geographic range. For example, rising temperatures can lengthen seasons and expand the range of disease-carrying insects, such as malarial mosquitoes moving from Kenya’s lowlands to the higher altitude parts of the Rift Valley, or the spread of Zika-carrying mosquitoes in the United States.
Deforestation, ocean warming and acidification also lead to ecosystem redistribution, species extinction, and food insecurity. (See article by Karin Wenger on the sinking of Bangkok and other megacities) With the planet increasingly out of balance, even more people are left in poor health and more susceptible to disease. Climate change not only intensifies the damage caused by COVID-19, but lessens the likelihood of understanding where, when and why such a disease will start in the future.
How does the COVID-19 crisis impact climate change, both now and the future?
As we have already witnessed over the past several months, the global response to COVID-19 has led to significant reductions in transportation and industry. This has been yielding decreased emissions of greenhouse gases. The Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air reports a 25 per cent reduction in Chinese emissions during February 2020. This is equivalent to more than half of Great Britain’s annual emissions. For its part, the European Space Agency has reported notable reductions in nitrogen oxide over Italy, while International Space Station astronauts noticed the same over China. (See article by Tira Shubart in Global Geneva)
Clearly more reductions will emerge due to the current planetary slowdown and, in many cases, nearly complete shutdown. The short-term effects are a reminder of our ability not only to decrease emissions on a sustained basis, but to serve as a reminder that we as humans can do with less. The question remains, however, as to whether society in a post-coronavirus period will be prepared to embrace such changes. (See Global Geneva article on the race that no one is winning)
Greenhouse gases have a residence time in the atmosphere of many decades, even centuries. But the toxic metals and particulates that accompany greenhouse gas emissions can only persist over several days. We have learned that lesson in several ways.
Ice cores, for example, capture greenhouse gases as well as dissolved and particulate chemistry. These provide perspective that reveals the difference between our pre-industrial atmosphere and our modern unparalleled – in Earth history – air quality. They also reveal the success of clean air legislation. In the US, the shutdown of aircraft and the slowdown in transportation during 911 provided yet another air quality reminder.
The Special Broadcasting Service Hindu News reports that levels of particulates in the atmosphere have reduced enough that people can now view the Himalayas from as much as 200km distant, as they could decades ago. There is a good chance that from your own home you can observe the COVID-19 impact on air quality by looking outside and seeing crisper scenery and more stars at night. Improved air quality makes us healthier and reduces health care costs.
COVID-19 and climate change: The imperative of global mobilization
How can an alternative future be achieved? The obvious answer is through science. But how can science be supported and facilitated and its fruits delivered on a global scale?
The twin problems of COVID-19 and climate change require global collaboration and diplomacy amongst countries, international organizations, research institutions, scientists and policy professionals. We can look to international law such as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and institutions such as the G-20, various United Nations agencies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank, all of which have deployed climate change projects and are very much on the COVID-19 front.
On 2 April 2020 the UN General Assembly adopted the resolution “Global solidarity to fight the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)”. This underscored “the central role of the United Nations system in catalyzing and coordinating the global response to control and contain the spread of COVID-19.” It also acknowledges the crucial role of the World Health Organization and called for “intensified international cooperation to contain, mitigate and defeat the pandemic, including by exchanging information, scientific knowledge and best practices”.
The Geneva-based WHO is where the world community formulates and implements measures necessary to address health emergencies by crucially managing a global regime to control the spread of disease. This includes the World Health Assembly, which adopted International Health Regulations (IHR) in 2005 to provide a broad and collaborative response to the spread of disease regardless of borders. It is also designed to “avoid unnecessary interference with international traffic and trade”.
The regulations are not limited to specific diseases, but apply to ever-changing public health risks. They also provide a legal basis for health documents for international travel, transport and sanitary protections for airports, ports, and ground crossings. The regulations were adopted by 196 countries including the United States. Yet, astonishingly, the White House has indicated an intent to withdraw WHO funding – in the midst of a pandemic and at a time when global collaboration is vital for finding a vaccine and for sharing response experiences.
Treatments and diagnostics developed to combat COVID-19 must be available to all people. Furthermore, patents, market regulations and drug pricing must not limit access to critical medicines. This should be an immediate priority of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), another Geneva-based institution, which promotes balanced and effective IP for all.
Maximization of distribution and access is critical. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), has concluded that addressing the current pandemic and protecting humanity against future global threats requires “sound management of hazardous medical and chemical waste; strong and global stewardship of nature and biodiversity; and a clear commitment to ‘building back better’, creating green jobs and facilitating the transition to carbon neutral economies.”
For its part, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), also in Geneva, noted that while COVID-19 may result in a temporary reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, it should not serve as a substitute for sustained climate action. Instead, it warns, the pandemic may make it even more difficult to tackle weather, climate and water-related hazards which are becoming more acute. WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas noted that while the pandemic has caused a severe international health and economic crisis, the current “failure to tackle climate change may threaten human well-being, ecosystems and economies for centuries”. For this reason, the immediate pandemic must be faced simultaneously with climate change.
The World Bank Group, established by the post-World War II Bretton Woods agreement for the reconstruction of Europe and retooled for global development, has been at the forefront of the climate change fight. In March this year, it initiated a COVID-19 Fast Track facility that quickly disbursed $1.9 billion to 25 of the world’s most vulnerable countries. The organization is now working to redeploy resources through restructuring and contingent financing. In the coming months, the Bank is expected to deploy an estimated $160 billion to help protect the poor and vulnerable, but also bolster businesses and economic recovery.
International organizations and treaties are largely designed to address distinct problems: health, the environment, development, human rights, trade, migration and so on. Since the pandemic, however, they have been working with less siloed approaches which will ideally prove to be a mode of operation in the future. Mobilizing transborder resources, experts and information, they are seeking to ensure the availability of medical equipment and supplies. Equally critical, they have the means to deploy science against the twin threats. But these institutions must be supported by governments long before such crises emerge.
Science for policy, policy for science
The world’s poorest are also the most vulnerable. In 2015 the UN General Assembly adopted the Sustainable Development Goals, or SDGs. These represent 17 objectives to improve human life and the planet with a target date of 2030. Goal 3 is Health and Well-Being. Goal 13 is Climate Action. Will COVID-19 derail each? On Earth Day 22 April, 2020, WMO’s Taalas insisted: “We need to show the same determination and unity against climate change as against COVID-19.”
In recent years, leading figures in countries ranging from the United States to Brazil have found it expedient to retreat from objective scientific facts. The good news is that as a consequence of the current pandemic this brief yet hazardous anti-science moment may be over. Citizens worldwide are now accepting that scientific facts must be the basis of decision-making for law and policy. This is the only way to prevail. On 14 April 2020 UN Secretary General António Guterres established the United Nations Communications Response Initiative to flood the Internet with facts and science in an effort to counter “the growing scourge of misinformation”. We must first trust in science, he added, because now is the “time for science and solidarity”.
Paul Andrew Mayewski is an internationally acclaimed glaciologist, climate scientist, explorer and leader of more than sixty expeditions to remote areas for which he has won numerous awards including the Medal for Excellence in Antarctic Research and the Lowell Thomas Medal of the Explorers Club. He is Distinguished Professor and Director of the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine.
Charles H. Norchi is the Benjamin Thompson Professor of Law in the University of Maine School of Law and a Global Geneva Contributing Editor. He recently served as Fulbright Arctic scholar in Iceland, is a Fellow of the World Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a Fellow of the Explorers Club for which he has led multiple flag expeditions.
The authors are co-Presidents of the Arctic Futures Institute, USA.